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Will India do the impossible?

It was a moment of glory for Indian team to win the Test at Melbourne in spite of batting 2nd. When you  think that Virat , Shami and Rohit are not there in team and Umesh breaks down in the first hour, winning is nothing but dream come true.

Reasons for Indian Victory and Australian loss

First of all India moved in with 5 bowlers and showed their intent.

Secondly Introduction of Ashwin in the 10th over stifled them and bound them. As I had written in My article that Ashwin is a spinner , who cannot be called leggie or off-spinner. So batsmen are tentative and this results in pressure and players go in a shell.

His bowling and disciplined bowling of Bumrah and Siraj, who never gave room so players had to force the pace , which resulted in catches in the outfield.

If you peruse the chart below you will analyze that Australian run rate is 2.25, whereas Australian batsmen like to keep it above 3. Steve Smith had said that Ashwin's handling cost them the match. This certifies that Australian team is not able to play their natural game.

Australia India
India vs Australia

Last but not the least Captaincy of Ajinkya Rahane held the key and he deserved his man of the match award.

Sydney Ground India Vs Australia

Australia couldn't have asked for a better venue than Sydney as one can see the table. India has won only one test in 1978, That  too was against the depleted side of the Packer era.

Australian winIndian WinDraws
516

 However India was on the verge of winning even in 2019 and in previous years too. India is known for collapse and that has been their undoing on many tests. Table below outlines the scores of the last 4 encounters.

India Vs Australia Last 4 tests  Innings wise scores

India Australia
India vs Australia last 4 tests innings

From above it can be ascertained that 450+scores are quite common. So, how a team handles pressure cooker situations, is the criteria for coming out trumps. Further we have tabulated the performances of players to highlight certain aspects.

Century makers and leading bowling performances

Performances India
Leading performances (Ind vs Aus)

It can be observed that if a player is set then he has to capitalize and make daddy hundreds.

Secondly strike rate displays that if a batsmen is aggressive then he has better chances of scoring.

3rdly there haven't been striking bowling performances . A bowler who gets movement off the pitch gets some assistance as against a tearway fast bowler. Success of Pattinson and Shami corroborate my view. Kuldeep took a fiver in the last match so Indian spinners will give moral ascendency to force Australian team into a defensive mould.

Pitch

Pitch will not offer too much bounce and only in the first morning it will swing and move due to moisture. Next 3 days it will be a batting paradise so bowling needs to be disciplined and one sided so that flow of runs is stopped and batsmen loses their wits and throws his wicket.. on 5th day pitch will break and offer assistance to spinner as well as seam bowler. 

Changes in Team

India

T Natarajan  has given performances 3 for 30, 2 for 20 and 1 for 33 in T-20 and he  goes for automatic selection

Rohit Sharma Comes in for Mayank or Hanuman Vihari. Mayank Agarwal had scored brisk 77  in last Sydney test, which set the tone . Further Mayank had played Nathan Lyon very well in his last tour. Hanuman always consumes balls and he creates partnership every time. So who to choose and who to leave is a difficult proposition.   Rahul will still sit out as Pujara can not be left out and Pant had scored a century in his last outing at Sydney. Poor Kuldeep, As Ashwin is fit and Jadeja is a automatic choice so he will have to sit out.

Australia

David Warner has to come as he will provide the attacking play. Burns need to go. Will Pucovski should get an opportunity as he is the youngest to hit double hundred and he hit 3 consecutive centuries in Sheffield Shield. Wade should go lower down and replace Travis Head , who has looked out of sorts. Green should stay as he has been unlucky to get caught on mid wicket twice while playing aggressive shots. Further his seam bowling will prove to be a bonus.

Toss

Toss is not crucial but still  Teams would like to bat first and put up a score. 

Verdict

Smith and Manus are backbone and one of them will definitely get a big score. For India Pujara is undone by bounce and Sydney does not offer high bounce so he will score here. Rohit holds the key for Indian win. If he scores it will be an Indian victory.

According to me either India is going to win or it will be a draw.  If Smith doesn't fire in the match and Ashwin and company strangulate him, India is going to win.

Again a happy viewing